Cleveland’s Climate Refuge Status Gets Complicated

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Despite the snowy Thanksgiving holiday, Cleveland’s status as a climate refuge got a warm review thanks to new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In the last decade, only three U.S. cities’ climates warmed faster than Cleveland’s, according to the new data.

In fact, NOAA’s data showed six Great Lakes cities and four New England cities comprised the top 10 cities that warmed the fastest from 2015-2024. Those cities, from most to least fastest warming, were: Sault Saint Marie, MI; Caribou, ME; Rochester, NY; Cleveland, OH; Columbus, OH; Syracuse, NY; Bangor, ME; Flint, MI; Burlington, VT; Montpelier, VT.

“Cleveland saw average temperatures rise from 51.13°F in 2015 to 55.23°F in 2024, an increase of 4.10°F,” a press statement noted. “Meanwhile, Columbus followed closely behind, warming from 53.21°F to 57.28°F, a 4.07°F spike. These increases place both Ohio cities among the fastest-warming urban areas in the country.”

In Sault Ste. Marie, the average temperature was 41.98°F in 2015. Last year, it was 46.78°F, or a 4.80°F rise. At the low end of the top 10, Montpelier’s average temperature in 2015 was 42.54°F. A decade later, it was 46.31°F or a 3.77°F rise.

Of the 215 locations studied in NOAA’s data, assembled by the National Centers for Environmental Information and Anderson Air, around 78 percent (or 168) have had temperatures increase between 2015 and 2024.

On the opposite end of the study, coastal California bucked the national trend. Los Angeles has cooled by 2.93°F since 2015, marking the largest temperature decrease nationwide. San Diego followed closely behind, cooling by 2.52°F.

Why is climate data in a blog about Cleveland-area real estate, construction and economic development? Because where people want to live drives investments in housing or transportation and utility infrastructure.

And the data offers a challenge to cities like Cleveland. Warmer temperatures put increased stress on cooling systems and electrical utility infrastructure which is already being tasked to handle significant new consumers of electricity, namely data centers.

At the extreme, sudden changes in climate can push people out, like the 1930s Dust Bowl forced farmers to abandon the Great Plains for the relative calm of the West Coast. Today, tropical storms and high insurance rates or even cancelations are causing some people to leave the Gulf Coast states. Wildfires have wreaked havoc across the Western states and Canadian provinces.

It’s not just North America that’s affected, of course. Up to 1.2 billion people worldwide may be displaced by climate change by 2050, according to the Institute for Economics & Peace. Their loss could be Cleveland’s gain.

The Great Lakes region, harboring 20 percent of the world’s freshwater supply, seem like a peaceful alternative to places experiencing climate turmoil — aside from our increasingly rare blizzards or wetter springs that can bring severe thunderstorms and flash floods.

“We have to realize that the southern states are literally not going to be livable in 50 years,” says David Pogue, American technology and science writer and correspondent for CBS News Sunday Morning. Pogue is a Cleveland-area native and the author of How to Prepare for Climate Change.

“Where are they going to go?” Pogue asked in a recent article. “They’re going to move North. There’s absolutely no question. This is Cleveland’s game to lose. It’s time to start thinking about attracting a new generation of people who can make Cleveland vibrant, beautiful and safe.”

Cleveland and Cuyahoga County leaders are striving to capitalize on our location on a Great Lake, a shoreline that was turned over to industry in the 1800s. But in post-industrial Cleveland, where someone can work remotely to anywhere in the world, our shoreline is turning residential and recreational.

While Greater Cleveland’s population is edging upward, a lack of new housing inventory is causing prices to surge. In fact, housing prices are rising faster in Greater Cleveland than in most other metros, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index. The region’s affordability has been one of its greatest draws.

According to job and career search Web site Monster.com, Greater Cleveland was one of the nation’s fastest growing job markets in the third quarter of 2025. The Q3 2025 Monster Job Market Report ranked Greater Cleveland as the 11th-best hiring hot spot in the United States.

Cleveland’s affordability, improving economy and climate safety, like those of Detroit, Milwaukee and others in the Great Lakes region, are causing young people to “boomerang” after leaving home for the promise of coastal big cities.

“Cities like Cleveland, Ohio, and Buffalo, New York faced similar declines as industry left and young people followed,” said Strong Towns staff writer Asia Mieleszko. “But the tides are shifting. Some communities are seeing their children return, ready to raise families where they grew up.”

“Others are seeing renewed job opportunities, sparked by local entrepreneurship or policy success,” she added. “Some neighborhoods are welcoming people relocating from places affected by hurricanes, wildfires, or floods—whether for the long term or just to get back on their feet.”

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