Sweeping declarations after two playoff games is often a silly thing to do. But is it also silly to feel that the series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic is over?
The Cavaliers have dominated the first two games of this series, winning each game by double digits and leading for almost every second of game play.
Here are three observations from the first two games of the series and a prediction for how the rest of it plays out.
Physicality
One of the biggest questions about the Cavaliers as a team entering this series was whether they would be able to amp up the physicality for the playoffs. In last year’s postseason against the New York Knicks, that was clearly an issue for the team. The Knicks essentially smacked the Cavs in the mouth this year and the Cavs had trouble responding.
This year has been quite different in that category.
Jarrett Allen’s play has been under a microscope during the first two games of this series, partially because of his comments following last year’s loss to the Knicks that, “the lights were brighter than expected.” He’s responded by winning the rebounding battle for the Cavs, grabbing 18 rebounds in Game 1 and 20 rebounds in Game 2. Even the rebounds he’s not getting, he’s making it extremely difficult for anyone on the Magic to grab.
It’s only been two games, so the sample size is obviously small, but when Allen is on the floor, he’s grabbing 23.8% of all the available rebounds. That figure would have ranked second among qualified players during the regular season.
Something similar can be said for forward Evan Mobley. He struggled at times last year against the Knicks and has been fantastic so far against the Magic. He’s been tasked with defending Orlando’s best player, Paolo Banchero, for much of this series and has been outstanding. Across 45 defensive possessions, Mobley has held Banchero to just six points on 2-of-11 shooting while forcing four turnovers. In that time, Banchero has only taken four free throws, too. It’s been a masterclass defensively by Mobley, and it’s started with stepping up to the challenge physically.
Offensively, Mobley has stepped up, too. In Game 1, he scored 16 points in the first half thanks to a couple of made 3-pointers early. That forced Orlando to change its defensive strategy, instead opting to switch smaller defenders onto Mobley to limit him from outside. Mobley took Orlando’s Cole Anthony, a 6-foot-2 guard, to the left block a couple of times, resulting in two easy baskets.
Both Mobley and Allen have played with the aggressiveness and physicality the playoffs require through two games.
Donovan Mitchell’s health
Arguably the biggest reason the Cavs didn’t play well in the second half of the season was because All-NBA guard Donovan Mitchell wasn’t right physically. He only played in 11 games after the All-Star Break, and rarely looked like he had the requisite burst for his game.
In the first two games against the Magic, Mitchell has largely looked like himself again. In Game 1, he had 30 points on just 21 shots, in Monday night’s Game 2 he came out hot, with 14 of his 23 points in the first quarter.
When he’s been on the floor, Mitchell has been in complete control. The pace of the game is in Mitchell’s hands and his diet of shot attempts has looked more like the healthy version of him. In the first two games, he’s attempted 17 shots inside the paint, which is an uptick from the second half of his season. That’s the same number of attempts as he has from beyond the arc, minus one halfcourt heave at the end of a quarter. When Mitchell isn’t feeling right, he typically attempts more 3-pointers than 2-pointers. That hasn’t been the case in this series.
There are a few moves that Mitchell has at his fingertips that he can break out when he’s feeling right. A powerful stepback jumper, a vicious spin and a high gather are all among them, and all three of those have been part of this series so far. That’s a great sign when it comes to Mitchell’s health.
If he continues to be the best player in this series, it’s a series the Cavs are going to win.
J.B. Bickerstaff’s coaching
Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has drawn quite a bit of criticism this year. Last postseason he was outcoached by New York head coach Tom Thibodeau, and there were worries about him down the stretch of this season while the Cavs struggled.
Bickerstaff’s performance on the sideline during the first two games of this series has been outstanding. He’s pulled the correct levers at the right times to help his team navigate through these games.
At times, the Cavs have gone to a zone defense out of a timeout to force Orlando into tough shots. He’s had a strong handle on the rotation, shortening down to eight guys in Game 2, after it was nine players in Game 1, although there was a fairly quick hook on Sam Merrill.
How this translates to the road when the Cavs travel to Orlando is yet to be seen, but there are plenty of reasons to feel good about things for the Cavs as they head on the road.
Prediction
Prior to the series, I said the Cavs would win the series in six games. That still may be true, Orlando certainly could find a way to win two games against the Cavs. The boost of the home crowd will do this struggling Orlando team well. But after 96 minutes of basketball, which the Cavs have been leading the Magic for 95 minutes and 10 seconds of, it has become difficult to envision this series lasting to a Game 6.
Due to Orlando’s lack of scoring ability, when the Cavaliers have been leading by 10 points, it’s felt more like a 20 point lead. The team was up by 14 points at halftime in Game 2, and it felt as if it was a 30-point game.
The Cavs will have to come home to play Orlando in a Game 5, but that’s where this series will end.
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