John C. Green was as surprised as you. The University of Akron political science professor felt confident in his prediction that Hillary Clinton would be the one taking the oath of office Jan. 20. But Green, who’s been studying elections for 40 years, says signs pointing to Trump’s 9 percentage point win in Ohio — and thus, his Electoral College victory — were there all along.
#RNCinCLE: In the months and weeks leading up to last summer’s Republican National Convention, people were concerned about major disruptions. But when things stayed calm in one of the bluest counties in the state, it should have been a sign Trump was less controversial with Ohioans than predicted. “A lot of people were expecting this very negative outpouring,” Green says. “And it didn’t happen. That’s an important point.”
The economy, stupid: Ohio’s economy has recovered since 2008. But most of the new jobs have been in tech and health care, leaving behind huge numbers of blue collar and rural workers. “Because of the positive news that we had about the economy, a lot of people underestimated the negative effect of the new economy,” Green says. “With 20/20 hindsight, maybe we should have seen that coming.”
Poll positions: The narrative after Election Day was how badly the polls misled the public. But Green cautions that’s not necessarily the case. While many polls in the weeks before the election didn’t show outright support for Trump, some indicated that people were at least taking him seriously. “The polling wasn’t wrong,” Green says. “We just misinterpreted that data.”
Turns Out the Election Wasn’t a Surprise After All
University of Akron political science professor John C. Green says signs of a Trump win were there all along.
